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Pre-election surveys for the elections to the Chamber of Deputies in the years 1996-2021 and their success
Ilková, Veronika ; Stauber, Jakub (advisor) ; Charvát, Jan (referee)
The bachelor's thesis processes the data of the results of pre-election surveys for the elections to the Chamber of Deputies of the Parliament of the Czech Republic. The aim of the bachelor's thesis is to evaluate the quality of pre-election polls for the period from the first elections to the Chamber of Deputies in 1996 to the last elections in 2021. At the same time, individual aspects of the surveys, which can affect their (poor) quality, are examined. The theoretical part of the thesis summarizes the historical development of the researched phenomenon. Subsequently, the basic methodological methods used in the construction of this type of surveys are presented. The individual types of surveys with electoral topis from the point of view of the contracting authority and the user are also described. The practical part defines the data used together with the basic introduction of agencies organizing pre-election surveys, it deals also with the chosen methodology. Selected statistical methods allow the processing of selected data and the subsequent answering of the main research question and two sub-questions. The thesis also provides closer view on ČSSD (Czech social democratic party) as the party whose prediction often significantly differed from the actual electoral gains.
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Interpretation of Pre-election Polls in The Czech Printed Dailies
Tučková, Kateřina ; Nečas, Vlastimil (advisor) ; Vochocová, Lenka (referee)
The diploma thesis Interpretation of Pre-election Polls in The Czech Printed Dailies studyies the ways in which media portrays data from election polls as part of thier news service. The thesis draws from theories of media effects, the research of which indicates a possible influence of media content on the formation of public opinion or even voting behaviour. For this reason, it maz be expected that the media present data in line with certain standards. However, in the Czech Republic, there is no code of conduct that would formulate such requirements. This leads to an ongoing struggle between the research agencies who supply such data and the media who present it to the public, where each party judges the content's quality by different measures. Some of the often criticised errors include misinterpretation of data and an insufficient explanation of the research's background. This paper uses quantitative content analysis to examine 154 articles from Czech printed journals across the three pre-election periods (2010, 2013, 2017) with the aim of determining in which form the results of pre- election polls are presented, and if all necessary data are added. The final analysis looks at the data as a whole as well as examining the trendlines during the studied time period. In conclusion, it evaluates...
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